RMB exchange rate trend forecast

RMB Exchange Rate Outlook: Trends for 2025

Overall Trend Forecast

The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain generally stable in 2025, showing two-way fluctuations within a reasonable range. Supported by strong economic fundamentals, the currency retains long-term appreciation potential.

Key Influencing Factors

China’s solid economic performance and sustained current account surplus provide a firm foundation for RMB stability. Meanwhile, global monetary policy divergence and geopolitical uncertainties may introduce short-term volatility.

Strategies for Businesses and Investors

Experts suggest adopting a risk-neutral mindset and using tools such as forwards and options to manage FX risks. Investors should pay close attention to how exchange rate changes affect global asset allocation and adjust portfolios accordingly.

Original Analysis:

Structurally, the RMB’s long-term trajectory is influenced not only by short-term policy shifts but also by China’s industrial upgrading, export competitiveness, and gradual capital-account liberalization. In an increasingly complex global financial environment, the RMB’s resilience may matter more than its short-term fluctuations.