2026 China Real Estate Market Forecast: Policy Easing Drives Market Stabilization and Recovery

With multiple real estate support policies taking effect, China’s housing market is expected to stabilize and gradually recover in 2026, with improvements anticipated in both sales and investment data. Recently, the central bank, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and other authorities have introduced measures such as lowering mortgage rates, loosening first-home qualification criteria, and supporting developer financing to stabilize the market and stimulate reasonable housing demand.

Market Outlook 2026: Sales Recovery, Investment Bottoming, and Increased Divergence

Experts predict that the 2026 real estate market will show several structural trends: first, the sales side is expected to continue warming, particularly in first-tier, second-tier, and strong third-tier cities where rigid and improvement-driven demand will be effectively released; second, the investment side may bottom out and rebound as financing conditions improve, allowing new construction and development investment to gradually recover; third, housing prices will show further divergence, with core cities likely seeing stabilization and mild upward movement, while weaker third- and fourth-tier cities continue to face downward pressure; fourth, the rental housing market will expand rapidly as long-term rental policies strengthen and institutionalized leasing grows.

Supply-Demand Dynamics Gradually Improving

With lower buying costs, better financing conditions, and tightened supply, core urban markets are expected to see more balanced housing supply-demand relationships, laying a foundation for stabilization.

Policy Outlook: Supportive Tone Continues with Risk Control Measures

In 2026, real estate policies are expected to remain accommodative, with a focus on supporting rigid and improvement housing needs while preventing systemic risks. Financial institutions will further increase differentiated financing support for developers, particularly high-quality companies and projects, accelerating industry consolidation and structural optimization.

Strategies for Homebuyers and Investors

For homebuyers—especially first-time buyers—2026 may represent a favorable window. Experts recommend choosing properties rationally based on financial capability and actual needs, avoiding herd behavior. Investors should focus on structural opportunities, including quality assets in core cities, urban redevelopment projects, and the expanding institutional rental market.

In-Depth Analysis: The Certainties and Uncertainties of the 2026 Housing Recovery

The driving force behind the 2026 recovery comes from policy support and improving supply-demand conditions, but its sustainability depends on economic rebound strength, the pace of buyer confidence restoration, and the resolution of developer credit risks. Core cities will stabilize first due to strong population and industrial fundamentals, while weaker cities still face challenges such as population outflow and high inventory. Over the long term, China’s housing sector will shift from an era of high-speed growth to high-quality development, with more diversified housing consumption patterns and a stronger rent-and-purchase dual-track system.